In the last few days Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied inside a hair of the $14,000 level and Ether (ETH) followed with a similarly strong functioning but the altcoin failed to hold above the $400 physiological support.

Bitcoin and Ethereum year-to-date operation. Source: Digital Assets Data

Although Ether price is below $400, information testify traders are not worried about Fri's options expiry. Investor optimism has been kept intact despite the recent decentralized finance (DeFi) lackluster performances.

$eighty million worth of Ether options are set to elapse this Fri, merely there has never been a potent argument for October. For starters, this number pales in comparison with the figures for December and March $282 one thousand thousand.

ETH options open involvement. Source: Cointelegraph

Even when taking a more granular view, October options are somehow counterbalanced between calls and puts. This information is a sign of an undecided market, which is neither bullish nor bearish when viewed in isolation.

October ETH options. Source: Deribit

Equally the data above shows, at that place is roughly the same amount of call (buy) options betting on prices up to $410, equally there are put (sell) options eager for lower prices. The scenario gets even more balanced later including OKEx numbers, which favors put (sell) options by 2.5K ETH.

The main reason behind the interest in October options is Ethereum's upcoming ETH 2.0 upcoming staking launch. For investors willing to open leveraged bets for this event, the odds favor December to March 2021 for an outcome. This rationale is valid both for bulls and bears, therefore greatly diminishing investors appetite for short-term options.

December ETH options. Source: Deribit

By analyzing December's $200 one thousand thousand in open involvement, ane volition obtain a better sense of how investors are positioning themselves for the upcoming Ethereum network upgrade. Bullish strategies are using this 'event' around 62% of these options.

Options pricing accept been signaling bullishness

For those unfamiliar with the "delta" mentioned on those charts, this indicator comes from the options Black & Scholes pricing model. Information technology represents the mathematical probability of Ether being above that cost on the expiry date according to its volatility. For instance, the current options pricing display 33% odds of the cost beingness above $460 on Dec 25.

Investors then compare calls and put options with similar probabilities. On a balanced market, traders should be demanding roughly the aforementioned premium for both options, with a 25% delta (odds).

Whenever the marketplace is unwilling to take downside take a chance, the indicator shifts negatively. On the other hand, a positive ten% delta skew indicates traders are demanding less premium (take chances) for upside protection.

three-month options 25% delta skew. Source: Skew

The above nautical chart shows a relatively steady optimism equally the 25% delta skew has been hovering effectually -11% past two months. Although non excessive, information technology certainly shows how sentiment has non changed despite the recent failure to sustain a $400 support level.

Tiptop traders are currently net long

To further confirm whether this optimism reflects investors positions, one should analyze the Ether top traders' long-to-short commutation provided data. By reviewing the superlative client positions on spot, perpetual and futures contracts, exchanges can obtain a clearer view of whether traders are leaning bullish or bearish.

In that location are occasional discrepancies in the methodologies used by different exchanges, and so viewers should monitor changes instead of accented figures.

ETH elevation traders long/short ratio. Source: Huobi and OKEx

As shown by the chart in a higher place, there hasn't been whatsoever relevant changes to the substitution'south meridian trading Ether positions. The decrease seen in Huobi is more than than compensated by OKEx's increasing long exposure. Binance figures were not included as they barely moved from 1.06 before this month to the current 1.01 level.

Ultimately, despite the 7% downturn in Ether price since last week and a relatively clear lack of ambition for short-term options, there are no bearishness signals.

This is because the 25% skew options pricing indicator and crypto exchange top traders long-to-brusk ratios are slightly favoring bulls.

Nevertheless, investors are concentrating their bets on December and March expiries, which seems to brand sense every bit the Ethereum network faces its most massive upgrade ever.

At least, for now, these traders are confident that $400 will human action as a support level going forward.bRegardless of what happens during tomorrow'southward expiry, one should closely monitor the options 25% delta skew indicator and top traders long-to-brusque ratio.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the autho r and practice not necessarily reverberate the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves chance. Y'all should conduct your ain research when making a determination.